We cannot prevent all future human-caused climate change with a few simple acts. This suggests we think about ways to adapt to projected climate change to the extent that we must.
However, actions that we make every day affect how much of it will happen. This suggests we think about ways to reduce it to the extent that we can.
Efforts toward both of these projects are especially important in our uses of energy, because the energy use of each of us is directly affected by climate change and the energy use of all of us, taken together, profoundly affects climate change.
The Two directions of impact between Climate Change and our Energy Use, and the irony they present to us
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It is through impacts on our energy use that projected global climate change is likely to affect all residents of our region most directly and measurably, touching all of our pocketbooks. As shown in this figure, projected global climate change will affect the severity and length of our heating and cooling seasons; these changes will in turn affect the amount of energy we use to heat and cool our buildings (homes and businesses); which will affect our heating and cooling expenses.
At the same time, it is through our energy use that we have contributed most, and continue to contribute most to climate change, far more than most people elsewhere in the world. The USA has emitted and continues to emit a disproportionate share of the greenhouse gases that are the primary human causes of climate change and over 87% of these emissions come from our energy use, essentially all from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum and natural gas).
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning, 2003, in million metric tons. Top 6 countries and world regions.(Emissions from the 6 countries were subtracted from the totals of their regions.)
Source: US Energy Information Administration: "International Energy Annual 2003" Table H1co2
Sources of total US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2004
Source: US EIA: Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2004
The first bar chart shows US dominance of Carbon dioxide emissions (the most important greenhouse gas in terms of its impact on climate change) compared to other countries and regions. However, we are one of the largest countries in terms of population. Of greater importance in terms of our sense of personal responsibility is how much greater our average Carbon dioxide emissions are per capita or per person, compared to these averages in other countries and regions.
Per Capita Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning in metric tons, 2003. Top 6 countries & world regions. (Emissions and populations from the 6 countries factored out from their regions.)
Source: US EIA: "International Energy Annual 2003" Table H1cco2
Here we see that while China as a whole is our closest rival in terms of total CO2 climate-changing emissions, the average Chinese citizen emits less than one-seventh of the Carbon dioxide of the average US citizen (she also uses about one-tenth the total energy).
Viewing these two directions of impact together presents us with a powerful irony. Because of several factors, projected climate change impacts on our energy use will be a net financial benefit for most of us in the CARA region, at least for the rest of this century. Our savings on heating bills are likely to be greater than our increased cooling bills. On the other hand, we contribute considerably more than our human share to climate change. Among its most likely impacts are several that are clearly negative, and all of them are most severe elsewhere in the world (and elsewhere in our country). Many of us believe (or like to say, anyway) that ‘what goes around comes around’. In the area of human-caused global climate change, however, it appears that we in the CARA region are among those populations most responsible for this change while we are likely to receive mildly positive impacts from it.
If projected climate change is likely to save us some money over the next century, does this mean it is a good thing? It's an odd situation we find ourselves in...Overview of this section
This section of CARA attempts to introduce you and our fellow citizens to both of these directions of impact. While we hope that it is of interest to government officials and manufacturers, it is primarily designed for the general public-- both as managers of households and as managers (and employees, owners and investors) of non-manufacturing businesses and other organizations.
It is divided into the following sub-sections.
The first four address the left-hand side of figure at the top of the page: negative impacts of our energy use and how we might most effectively reduce them, including our contributions to accelerating climate change as well as rising energy expenses.
The final six address the right-hand side of that figure: how currently projected climate change is likely to affect our heating and cooling energy use and expenses.
presents a brief overview of how we have come to use energy as heavily as we have, in large part without thinking much about it, and why any real reform of these habits can only happen with the active learning, interest and willpower of each of us citizens.
summarizes current impacts of our energy use that we might begin to think about as we reflect on, and take control of, our energy use. Energy expenses of your household or business is clearly an important one. Energy contributions to climate change may well be another. Several others might be worth our consideration.
introduces three types of energy choice in which each of us can begin to reduce one or more of the negative impacts of our energy use. While one of these--improving 'energy efficiency'-- is familiar to most, at least as an idea, the other two are equally important areas of citizen influence and have received far less publicity.
applies these types of energy choice to the energy uses that have the greatest impact on global climate change and our budgets, and that we as citizens have the most direct control over.
This is the main portal to this section.
summarizes heating and cooling energy use in our region, and explains the measures of 'heating degree day' and 'cooling degree day', which are central to the models used in these tools.
offers estimated changes in individual household and business heating and cooling energy use, in annual amounts averaged over decades, for the rest of the century. It uses projected climate change in our region and the relation betweeen outdoor temperatures and heating and cooling energy use. There are two versions: one based on recent regional averages for a few typical house-types; the other based on your reported energy use of a particular home or commercial space for a recent year.
offers estimated aggregated changes in heating and cooling energy demand at the county level, based on averaged temperature projections, current average household use and population projections.
allows you to view estimated changes in heating and cooling energy use and expense for average households in each state in our region, and compares climate-driven cost savings with savings from investments in improved efficiency.
The sections were composed to be read, considered, discussed in this order, but of course, you are entirely free to hop around as you please.
Your feedback is very welcome.