Land Use Primer:
How does climate change impact land use?
Most of the work that has looked at the impacts of climate change on Land Use has focused on agricultural land and forests. Variability in climate can affect agricultural land patterns due to a) rainfall patterns, b) temperatures (particularly night temperatures) and c) CO2 enrichment. Controlled experiments have found that greater variability in rainfall patterns result in lower overall plant growth due to decreased water availability in the upper 30 cm of soil. Higher temperatures are likely to make growing seasons longer, allowing the possibility of more than one cropping cycle during the same season as well as the expansion of agricultural and forest land towards the poles and to higher elevations. At the same time, increases in night time temperatures can affect biological processes such as respiration and could result in reduction of potential yields.
Scientists are trying to understand the responses of CO2 enrichment (higher volumes of CO2 in the atmosphere) on different species. Wheat, rice and soybeans are crops that seem to have a positive response (increased overall observed growth) to higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Crops such as corn are likely to be less responsive to CO2 enrichment (Cure and Ackock 1986).
Given all the factors mentioned above, the net impact on agriculture in a particular area could be positive or negative. If climate change makes agriculture less productive in an area, then more farm land will be converted to other uses. If climate change makes agriculture more producting in an area, land that is currently in forests may be converted to agricultural uses.