Temperature Projections
Projected change in mean surface air temperature, 2000-2100 compared with 1990, for several SRES scenarios. The light blue shading shows the range given by all of the climate models IPCC used for all 35 SRES scenarios. The dark blue shading shows the range that the 35 SRES scenarios give for an “average” climate model.
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Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result in downward infrared radiation--warming. Earth’s mean surface air temperature is projected to increase under all SRES scenarios – somewhere between 2.3 and 10.4 ºF (1.3 and 5.8 ºC). We expect future climate to be warmer, although we do not know exactly how much warmer it will be. Scenario A2 projects an increase of approximately 6.9 ºF (3.8 ºC) by the year 2100, and B2 projects an increase of approximately 4.9 ºF (2.7 ºC).
Note that the assumptions for each scenario have important influences on its projections. For instance, Scenario A2’s higher energy use means more CO2 emissions that can warm the atmosphere.
Uncertainty is reflected indirectly at the right of the figure; for each of six of the IPCC scenarios, a bar shows the range of model results for the year 2100.
For more details, go to: Climate Change Scenarios and Projections