Adirondack Park case study
Adirondack Park case study
Snowmaking has enabled downhill ski areas in New York and other parts of the northeast to lengthen the ski season by supplementing natural snow and ensuring good conditions. However, weather influences ski areas’ ability to make snow and keep it on the slopes. CARA researcher Katie Detweiler modeled the length of the ski season over the next century based on the frequency of skiable days using a method developed and applied in several other studies. Read the full report for a complete explanation of skiable days and the model.
The baseline time period for the study is 1987 – 1997. During this period, the model showed a ski season length of between 172-183 days for the five historical climate network station locations in the Adirondack Park. (Note: because the model uses HCN data, and since the locations of these stations do not correspond directly to actual ski areas, these are not necessarily representative of actual ski conditions.) The model then assesses the length of the ski season at two future points in time, the decade between 2025-2035 and the decade 2090-2100, under two different climate models, the Hadley and the Canadian models. (More about climate models here.)
The graphs to the right depict the frequency of skiable days during the course of the season for the Indian Lake Climate Station. Interested in a different station? Download the thesis (pdf, 694kb) showing the entire study, including projections for Lake Pla
cid, Stillwater, Tupper Lake, and Wanakena.
The top graph shows the CCC model projection, the bottom graph shows the Hadley projection. The frequency of skiable days can be interpreted as the percentage likelihood that a particular day in the season will be skiable.
The study assumes that a day with a frequency of greater than 50 is part of the ski season.
Depending on the climate model selected, the study indicates that the ski season is projected to shorten by two to four weeks by 2025 and one to two months by 2090.
