Forest Cover Changes
These maps show potential range expansion and contraction that some species may experience with climate change in the northeast, as modeled by Prasad and Iverson in a USDA Forest Service project available here. The general picture they give is that the Adirondacks may generally lose northern species like balsam fir and white cedar, while becoming increasingly inhabited by southern species like red oak and black cherry.
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Current range of tree species, but expected to be lost through climate warming |
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Portion of current range the tree species is predicted to occupy with climate warming |
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Predicted range expansion as a result of climate warming |
| Balsam Fir |  |
| White Cedar |  |
| Yellow Birch |  |
| Sugar Maple |  |
| Red Oak |  |
| Black Cherry |  |
The maps on this page are excerpted from The Adirondack Atlas and copyrighted by the Wildlife Conservation Society
These maps should be taken with a grain of salt, though. Tree species have experienced dramatic changes of climate in the past and may prove more adaptable than we would guess. While climate will likely change, underlying soils and other ecological conditions will not shift as rapidly. The localized impacts of these factors are unclear. They may prevent species from moving easily into ranges they would otherwise inhabit. They may cause general ecological disruption. Or they may allow species to persist outside of their preferred temperature ranges.
Another factor not captured by these maps is the impact that forest pests and diseases will have, and how these factors will influence forest health in a changing landscape. The key message is that the impacts of climate change on forest cover will be more complex than yanking the blanket of forest cover to the north.
More information on predicted forest cover change can be found in:
Chapter five of the New England Regional Assessment report
The US National Assessment northeastern website