Projecting Land Use Patterns
The purpose of this study was to estimate a county-level statistical model that explains historical rates of land cover change caused by changes in land use, and use that model to predict future rates of land cover change. The specific land use change studied is the conversion of land from less-developed, open space uses (forests, pastures, cropland, wetland) to more developed uses (residential, commerical, industrial, roads). The statistical model was estimated based on data from 79 nonurban counties in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina. Land cover change projections were calculated for all counties in the CARA region.
Detailed documentation can be found here (pdf) 