Companion Case Studies: Metropolitan East Coast Assessment

The Metropolitan East Coast Assessment focuses on the effects of climate change on people, ecology and geography, and decision-making and economic activities in a major urban area. The assessment covers 31 counties in the New York Metropolitan Area, across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. It is part of the eighteen assessments done for the U.S. Global Change Research Progam's First National Assessment, and addressed two major questions:

1. How will climate change affect the New York Metropolitan Region?

• Average Temperature: The average temperature is expected to increase during the 21st century in the Metropolitan Region. The degree rise varies by model.
• Precipitation: Expectations about precipitation are uncertain because the different models used did not project one trend. One showed an increase in the amount of precipitation, while another predicted an increase in precipitation variability.

2. How will people and their surroundings be affected by these climate changes?

• Coasts: Globally, there is an expected increase in sea-level rise. For the New York Metropolitan area, this could increase the amount of storm flooding. There also could be an increase in beach erosion and flooding along the coastal areas. As a response, more sand might need to be added to the area’s beaches.
• Transportation Infrastructure: More frequent storm surges and flooding will affect the way infrastructure will be repaired and refurbished to prepare and protect it for these potential changes.
• Water Supply: Potential increased flooding and droughts across this region will affect the amount of water available to residents, as well as its quality. Over the long-term, the region will need to prepare for these changes.
• Public Health: Warming across the region could lead to more heat-related illness, while costal flooding is also a concern. The level of impact depends on the level of adaptability.
• Energy: Higher temperatures could increase the demand in energy for cooling. The region will need to make plans to deal with this demand.
• Institutional Decision Making: Decisions about the “population, land use, infrastructure and built environment” of the region will have to take into account the impacts of climate change. Land-use and social program planning decisions will need to account for increased temperatures and precipitation in the region. This includes educating the population about their role in climate change and adaptation methods.
• Wetlands: A case study for Jamaica Bay, NY projects that sea-level rise will lead to a decrease in marshes, which will contribute to an increase in costal flooding. In addition, the ecosystems of these areas will see changes.

For more information see: The Metropolitan East Coast Assessment